Low Price Adjustment Of Polyester In Traditional Off-Season Of Terminal Textile

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic polyester filament market overall maintained a small decline trend this week, among which polyester FDY and polyester POY began to stop falling and rebound in the middle of the week.

　　 Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from November 20 to 27, unit: yuan / ton

At the beginning of the week, driven by the raw material market, the production and sales of polyester filament took off. On the 25th, the production and sales of polyester filament were more than 300%. The willingness of downstream textile enterprises to copy the bottom increased. Some downstream factories replenished goods. The purchasing strength was generally larger than that in the earlier stage. The market trading atmosphere was hot, and the factory inventory pressure was relieved. However, with the decline of crude oil, the weaving heat has declined, and the production and sales have declined. At present, the average production and sales of mainstream factories are around 60%. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 23-36 days, of which POY inventory is 6-13 days, FDY inventory is around 16-34 days, and DTY inventory is about 24-36 days. In terms of price, at present, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have quoted polyester POY (150D / 48F) at 5050-5250 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) at 5150-5450 yuan / ton, and polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) at 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

This week, crude oil continued to rise, cost support strengthened. As of November 25, the settlement price of WTI main contract of international crude oil was 45.71 USD / barrel, up 26.38% compared with the beginning of the month, while the settlement price of Brent main contract was 48.61 USD / barrel, up 26.84% compared with the beginning of the month. It has reached the highest level since March. On the one hand, the successive positive news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is beneficial to the supply expectation. PTA spot market price also showed a wave of rebound, as of November 27, the average market price was 3343 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.90%.

　　 Recent domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

PTA plant was restarted one after another to supply pressurization. The 1 million ton PTA plant of Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. was restarted in the evening of November 23; the 700000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is planned to restart in the evening of November 27; the 1.2 million ton PTA plant of Sinopec is expected to restart by the end of this month, with the industry operating rate rising to more than 91%. Plant restart to accelerate the accumulation of inventory, surplus negative still inhibit PTA growth.

Near the end of November, the domestic textile terminal market continued to cool down, and the start-up rate of traditional low-season textile enterprises declined, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was reduced to below 86%. The polyester industry was ultimately high in production and sales, and lacked sustainability. According to China Textile City News, the current downstream fabric trade began to reduce orders, stop the situation. In the market, the curtain cloth and home decoration fabric with polyester filament as the main raw material are still insufficient compared with the previous best-selling seasons, and some small and medium-sized business operators' counterpart merchants still place relatively limited orders. However, the order delivery batch sizes of various business outlets are mutual, but the overall market sales volume is still insufficient. It is expected that the transaction in the traditional market will shrink back, and the overall market transaction will show a small trend of shock.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the momentum of crude oil continued to rise is insufficient, PTA began to accelerate the accumulation of inventory at the end of November, and Fujian Baihong new production capacity is planned to be put into operation next month, resulting in increased supply pressure. In addition, the terminal textile into the traditional off-season, the new orders in the market are not good, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will be stable and weak in the short term.

(source: Business Club, author: Xia ting)