Polyester Chips: "Bubble" After False Prosperity

European and American countries have planned to lift the closed measures due to the outbreak and restart the economy, and the international crude oil has increased substantially during the May 1 period. After the festival, PET chip enterprises have increased their value by 100-300 yuan / ton, and the production and sales data are still available on that day. However, there is a lack of willingness to catch up in the lower reaches and lack of demand. Stable and difficult.

    Source: lung Chung

The valuation of varieties is generally based on their profits, changes in current inventory and the trend of supply and demand fundamentals. This year 1-5 The average profit of PET chips is Three hundred element / Near the tonne, the whole is in. 200-400 element / Tons of space fluctuations, compared Nineteen Average daily profit in the fourth quarter of the year is insufficient Fifty element / Tons of polyester chips in the first half of the overall revenue is still very high, far higher than 1-2 The expected domestic epidemic in June. regenerate PET The profit margins are still within reasonable limits. From the inventory point of view, the average stock of PET chips has dropped to the end of the lower reaches of Qingming. Five Near the day, many enterprises have been oversold or stock down. Three Within days, plus Four When the masks were lifted in the month, the slicing stock dropped even further. Three Near the sky, small and medium enterprises Seven From the perspective of supply and demand, the downstream area of polyester chips is divided into civilian spinning. 46% Polyester film (ratio) 25% Industrial yarn (ratio) 21% And others ( 8% ) As the largest proportion of export enterprises with high dependence on exports, the sharp reduction in export orders has put them in a dilemma. Most of them maintain low load production. After initial recorders, individual raw materials inventory is as high as near. Two In the first half of the year, the demand for polyester film and industrial yarn was better, especially for industrial yarn. Under the new development initiatives of the state, the industrial silk industry needs better in geogrids, light box advertising cloth and other fields. In other fields, such as the regenerated chemical fiber industry, because of the low price of PET chips in the first half of the year, the proportion of doped chips increased sharply, and the difference between bottles and chips was as high as 600-900 yuan / ton. Under the temptation of cost compression, the consumption of bright chips increased.

Overall, by the end of April, the polyester chip market showed a "false prosperity". Polyester factories were in short supply, traders made a lot of money, but are they in the market? Xiaobian thinks it is very difficult. The polyester chip market was quiet at the end of April. With the rise of crude oil and the news of European and American release, the market will give some encouragement, but the market is more or less in anticipation of good speculation. Once the expectation is not reached, the market mentality is fragile. In view of the current market, the negative factors are constantly increasing, and the probability of market weakening is bigger: Civil sliced spinning enterprises have plenty of stock, inventory is no shortage of replenishment of 6000 yuan / ton before and after the Spring Festival, sliced spinning costs and profits are difficult to guarantee, and it is difficult for funds to continue to catch up; the difference between recycled PET and polyester chip scissors is further enlarged, especially in the early stage of regenerated chemical fiber plant, and its demand is weak and short. In the first half of the year, there is a large number of dumping operations. At present, polyester chip enterprises have a relatively large daily output, and large enterprises only keep this month until the end of this month. If the downstream weaving orders do not recover significantly, the risk of polyester chip downlink will not decrease, and it is expected that by mid May, the risk will not be reduced until mid May. There is a clearance of 150-250 yuan / ton, paying particular attention to the recovery of downstream textile orders in Europe and America.