After A Steep Fall, A Chicken Feather! Facing The Long Accumulation Of Inventory, Cloth Boss Shook His Head.

"Commodity analysis is no more than a few drones". This week's textile people pay attention to Saudi Arabia every day.

After the Mid Autumn Festival, the opening date of the first day of the festival was 17% higher than that of WTI and 14.68% for the whole day, and 19% for Brent and 14.61% for the whole day. PTA changed the pattern of weak early stage, and opened up to 5328 yuan / ton. Ethylene glycol opened in one step, with direct trading, and night plate surged again by more than 7%. Polyester filament is also unwilling to be lonely. The price is generally raised by 200 yuan / ton.

In September 15th Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and marketing reached 120%, 16 days, it has reached 270% level. But it did not last long. Saudi Arabia's "proper" pots of cold water poured out the enthusiasm of the market. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said in a statement that Saudi Arabia's oil production will resume faster than originally expected, and will return to normal within 2-3 weeks. In the past two days, Saudi Arabia's oil output has recovered more than half, and it will fully recover at the end of September. As news came, oil and polyester raw materials both dropped, and polyester production and sales also dropped rapidly to 3.

Figure: Trend of polyester production and marketing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang

Judging from the subsequent impact of the incident, it should mainly depend on two points: 1., the recovery rate of damaged capacity and the delivery of spare capacity; 2. Saudi Arabia and even the United States in the future how to deal with this terrorist attack.

The first point directly affects the balance of supply and demand. But one thing is that we can not grasp the first hand information. Two, the resumption of production is essentially a matter of time, and its long-term impact is limited. Therefore, the latter is the most critical variable affecting future oil price movements. The deeper impact is that the risk premium for the Middle East instability in the crude oil market will be greatly increased.

This incident has exposed a prominent problem: the Abqaiq of this terrorist attack is the core asset of Saudi Arabia, and the highest level of security defense is the heart of the whole Saudi army's heavy defense. This time, it could break through the defense of several UAVs, and cause more than 50% of the capacity of the whole country to passively reduce production. This implied the risk of oil supply in the Middle East region can be imagined, and no one can guarantee new disputes.

Grey cloth market is dull.

However, the terminal grey fabric market has been relatively calm. On Sunday, prices were stable, and some people took some goods on Monday. Some people took a bit, and on Tuesday, there was no movement.

Q: is there any good sale of grey cloth?

Answer: Wujiang market did not respond, shaoshao market in general.

Q: if the price of oil is not falling down, will not the cost come up later? Now it is not harder to get goods.

Answer: business is bad, stocks are large, and the price of products can not keep up.

Q: there has been some improvement in the Haining market, but not much. Why?

Answer: shipment is good, there is no price difference, no power, machine can not be opened, it doesn't matter; if you want to raise prices, market goods may be directly. I fell down.

Inflation is not sustainable. Taking risks is not worth living. This year, this kind of thing is also seen too much downstream, and every time the boom will eventually return to the original form, leaving a chicken feather, and more and more inventory. At present, the life of the entity enterprises is rather sad. The rising cost is inevitable. Inventory digestion before, can only afford to bear the pressure of rising costs.

Summary

On the whole, the textile market has been weakening since June, and the peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is even lighter. Although the oil market "farce" in recent two days has added some variables to the off-season, there has not been much spray.

In the case of no improvement in terminal clothing orders, the impact of rising oil prices on the chemical fiber textile industry chain is very limited. Perhaps the short term oil price increase will push up the short-term price increase of raw materials, but it will eventually come down because of poor demand. But in today's turbulent macro environment, the market is not sure too much. Often a trend will change the original market direction, and the market still needs to pay close attention to the direction of the macro environment.