IMF: Vietnam's Economic Growth Rate Will Slow To 6.5% In 2019.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the "2019 Vietnam consultation Fourth" report (a report on the 2019 Article IV Co Nsultation with Vietnam) the economic growth rate of Vietnam (2019) will slow down to 6.5%, mainly due to the slowdown in credit growth and the slowdown in growth of major trading partners, and the inflation rate is forecast to reach 3.6%.

According to the IMF report, the United States and China are Vietnam's main trading and investment partners, while the US China trade war has only some positive effects on Vietnam, mainly due to the export to the US market share derived from trade diversion. Because Vietnam's exports to the US are similar to exports to China, the increase in exports to the US is offset by a reduction in exports to China. The most obvious impact should be on the transfer of investment.

Due to the fact that the trade policy is still maintained, international factories have shifted the supply chain from China to Vietnam to reduce production costs and disperse production sites. Although Vietnam has gradually become the value chain of manufacturing, it still faces many risks: for example, the slow growth of external partners and the weakness of the banking industry will also bring risks, and the bottleneck of restraining corruption will also delay investment. The good side includes signing a number of free trade agreements.

The Vietnamese government also agreed with IMF and reiterated that it would stabilize the overall financial system and make continuous efforts to achieve the goal of 6.6%-6.8%'s economic growth.

Capital Economics in recent "emerging Asia economic focus report" (Emerging Asia Eco) Nomics Focus report pointed out that Vietnam, with its low labor costs, political stability and close integration of the supply chain of South China, has been exported to the US since the Sino US trade war. The results show that the economic growth rate of Vietnam is 6-6.5% this year, reflecting the prospect of export improvement.

In a recent report, Fitch Solutions, an American credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, pointed out that the agency forecasts that the economic growth rate of Vietnam will slow down to 6.5% this year, mainly due to the slow global economy.