Cotton Trend Cotton Enterprises 8, September Is To Leave Or Stay?

In late July, the inner ginning mills and cotton enterprises gradually became more and more lively. On the one hand, machine maintenance and equipment renewal were opened; on the other hand, some textile factories, traders and investment enterprises in the mainland went to Xinjiang to inspect and contract processing plants, and the rented production line was also officially launched. Of course, a number of research and development organizations, Futures Company and other organizations also joined the production and marketing team in Xinjiang. The parties are eager to try.

With the new cotton market listing less than two months (Southern Xinjiang hand picked cotton is the fastest before the second half of September to start processing), a large number of 2018/19 regulatory merchandise warehouse turnover inventory is becoming more and more embarrassed, manifested as "large quantity, slow out, and capital". According to the cotton Logistics Association of China Cotton Association, as of the end of June, the total inventory of cotton turnover in China was about 2 million 917 thousand and 400 tons, of which 43 warehouses in the Xinjiang area had 2 million 162 thousand tons of commodity cotton turnover and 74% of the total stock in the country. According to the monitoring of relevant departments, in July, Xinjiang cotton road transportation was low, and the railway did not get much improvement. Therefore, the author judged that the total output of Xinjiang cotton in the whole July was less than 200 thousand tons, and the turnover of commodity cotton turnover within the territory as at the end of July was not less than 1 million 950 thousand tons.

For most cotton enterprises, it is not easy to answer the question of whether to leave or stay in 8 and September. Especially in the southern Xinjiang hand picked cotton ginning factory, which fails to guarantee or fail to guarantee, leaving the field means a big loss and gambling. According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, as at 19 in July, 5 million 102 thousand tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang, and 3 million 827 thousand tons of lint were sold in Xinjiang. Sales accounted for 75% of the total processing volume this year. If the sample is mainly a large and medium-sized cotton processing enterprise, then the actual sales of the ginning plant will be more than 75% or even greater than 80% (the small ginning factory is restricted by funds, sales channels, markets and so on. Most of the shipments are concentrated before March), that is, the main body of commodity cotton inventory management is Cotton Traders (most of which are hedging and arbitrage), rather than cotton processing enterprises.

笔者的看法是走而非留，就像棉花播种一样“时来不等墒，墒来不等时”，原因主要有如下几点：其一、中美贸易磋商短期难有大的推进，利好消息并不多，即使重启谈判恐怕也要到8月下旬及以后了，而且前景难料；其二、8、9月份国内棉花供给非常充足，商品棉库存+储备棉轮出+进口至少400万吨，“缺口”论不攻自破；其三、从近几年来看，2015、2017年8-9月份棉价持稳或下跌，而2016、2018年8-9月份先跌后涨，2019年很可能延续“奇”数年定律；其四、2019年国内棉花消费滞涨、下跌非“一日之寒”，至少从目前调查来看，需求下降尚未现止跌、反弹的势头；其五、全球棉花基本面、技术面都看空，主力破60美分/磅或是大概率事件。