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Loose Expectation To Improve PTA Supply And Demand Forecast In June

2019/6/10 15:59:00 91

In May, the curtain fell, and PTA finally ended in a decline.

As far as the main contract is concerned, from 5890 yuan / ton down to 5082 yuan / ton, the decrease is 13.7%, the lowest since 2017.

The market has gradually entered the June, and this trend has not ended, and the new low is constantly being refreshed under the influence of crude oil.

In June, due to price easing, the supply side also reversed, so we analyzed the supply and demand situation of PTA in June.

This week, the overhaul on the supply side is basically out of schedule maintenance. Although the repair time is relatively short this week, it completely changes the market's expectation of the supply side's large increment in June.

It can be seen from the table that this week's overhaul of enterprises increased the PTA load from 95.87% to 83.15%, down by nearly 13 percentage points.

And in July there is a big factory overhaul plan, the overall supply end storage will be significantly eased.

Table 16 monthly maintenance schedule for PTA plant

From the perspective of polyester in the lower reaches, polyester production decreased greatly in May. This is also the reason why PTA has dropped from high.

Mid June polyester downtime enterprises will gradually restart.

Although there was a maintenance plan for Tai Wo, Lian Da and Gu Tong in the middle and late 6 months, there was a reduction in production and reduction.

Therefore, we estimate that the start-up load of polyester plant in June will be slightly improved, thereby further improving market expectations.

Based on the above implications, it is assumed that the overall supply and demand of PTA in June is somewhat lower than that expected in May, and the magnitude of the accumulated library has declined.

It is estimated that the output of PTA will be about 3 million 770 thousand tons in June, and the consumption will be 3 million 638 thousand and 500 tons, and the storage capacity will be estimated at 131 thousand and 500 tons, a drop of nearly 50 thousand tons compared with last month's forecast.

Table 22019 comparison of PTA supply and demand balance for 5-6 months

Although PTA supply and demand is expected to improve, the PTA repository in June is not expected to be materially reversed.

PTA continues to accumulate.

The current stage tightening pattern of the stock market has been alleviated, and the spot trading atmosphere has slipped this week. In addition, the current PTA processing fee has expanded again, and the PTA factory's willingness to stop inspection will be reduced. This will restrict the overall weakness of PTA, and the rebound drive is not strong enough.