Domestic Cotton Spot Keeps Stable, Zheng Cotton Futures Oscillate Upward

In 2016, Global trade was the lowest growth rate since the financial crisis. The slowdown in trade growth reflected the slowdown in global economic growth and the decline in commodity prices.

This week, domestic cotton spot remained stable, Zheng cotton futures rose, cotton yarn prices stabilized, polyester staple prices fell, international spot prices fell, ICE cotton rebounded.

The price dropped sharply, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to expand, and the price difference of cotton yarn was narrowed.

1. Price trend

(1) cotton prices

This week, domestic cotton spot prices were weak and steady, Zheng cotton futures rose sharply, international cotton prices fell slightly, ICE cotton rebounded and cotton prices stopped rising in India, and cotton prices in Pakistan remained strong (Table 1).

(two) price of cotton yarn and polyester staple fiber

This week, the price of domestic cotton yarn is stable.

The price dropped, the price of international cotton yarn dropped, and the price of India and Vietnam yarn dropped significantly.

(three) price difference

1, the price difference between inside and outside cotton continues to expand.

In February 24th, the import cost of the international cotton index (M) was RMB 15033 yuan / ton (1% customs duties, customs rates, the same below), which was lower than the domestic standard of 908 yuan / ton, and the price difference increased by 113 yuan / ton compared with last week. The cost of import of S-6 cotton in India was 14407 yuan / ton, which was lower than the domestic 1533 yuan / ton, the price difference increased by 94 yuan / ton compared with last week. The import cost of the domestic standard grade cotton discount RMB was 13783 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic 2158 yuan / ton, and the price difference narrowed 31 yuan / ton compared with last week (chart 1).

2, inside and outside cotton yarn spreads narrowed overall.

32 branches of Vietnam in February 24th

23490 yuan / ton (the cost of imported RMB) is lower than that of China's domestic 32 pure cotton yarn, which is 60 yuan / ton, the price difference narrowed by 201 yuan / ton compared with last week. India's 32 pure cotton yarn is 24132 yuan / ton, which is 582 yuan / ton higher than China's 32 pure cotton yarn, and the price difference is reduced by 581 yuan / ton compared with last week.

3, domestic yarn cotton, polyester cotton spreads widened.

This week, the difference between domestic yarn and cotton price was 7610 yuan / ton (32 cotton and pure cotton yarn -328B cotton price), an increase of 13 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the difference of polyester cotton price 7240/ ton (328B cotton price - polyester staple fiber price), an increase of 162 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Two. Fundamentals

According to the survey of 80 large and medium-sized cotton processing enterprises, as of February 24th, the national processing rate was 97%, up 1 percentage points from the same period, 0.7 percentage points higher than the average in the past four years; the national sales rate was 68.9%, up 15.1 percentage points from the same year, and the average rate of the past four years was slowed by 3.2 percentage points.

Near the national cotton store, the domestic cotton sales overall slowed down, but the quality cotton prices were strong, textile enterprises were booming, inventory was generally low, and waiting for cotton reserves to go out.

On the 17-23 th of February 2017, the average price of the seven largest markets in the United States was 71.99 cents / pound, down 1.47 cents from the previous week.

According to USA's latest report, in the week of February 16th, the United States signed a net contract of 2016/17 83 thousand and 300 tons of upland cotton, an increase of 65.2% over the previous week.

As of February 16th, the US 2016/17 cotton grading test increased by 31% over the same period last year.

The USDA Outlook Forum predicts that the US cotton planting area increased by 14% over the same period in 2017.

Recent India

The daily listing volume is close to 34 thousand tons, and the new cotton market in Pakistan increased by 10.63% compared with the same period last year.

Three, macroeconomic situation

Recently, the relevant people of the National Research Center said that the L growth of China's economy is expected to change from "one vertical" to a relatively stable "one level". In 2017, China's economy can achieve the growth of the predicted stable range, showing a slight decline in investment growth, a steady growth in consumption and a negative turn in exports.

This week, the central bank opened a net market of 155 billion yuan, ending the net return of the four weeks, but the Shibor interest rate continued to rise for 7 days. The market funds remained tense. Monetary policy reflected risk prevention and leverage to support the real economy.

To sum up, the domestic cotton reserves are coming out soon. Meanwhile, the textile enterprises are in good condition, the demand for cotton is strong, and the stock of raw materials is generally low. It is estimated that the domestic cotton prices will be strong in the near future.

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