The Renminbi Has Gone Through Three Rounds Of Significant Depreciation.

6.8 yuan estimate is unable to defend, 6.9 is also impossible to defend, can 7 yuan be able to defend? Since the central bank started the RMB exchange rate intermediate price quoted price mechanism reform since August 11, 2015, the RMB has already fallen heavily in three rounds, and the accumulated depreciation rate has exceeded 10%.

Generally speaking, the depreciation of the local currency is definitely bad for the stock market, but it seems that China's stock market is more exotic than ever before. After the golden week, there are news of depreciation. However, the stock market has been artificially pulled out of the market, and the index has hit 3100 points, not only rushing to 3100 points, but also keeping 3100 points of funds. In October 17th, the B-share index diving 6.5% did not block the main force's pace, and set a clear formula for a pair of people to conquer the sky.

I hope that the depreciation of the RMB is controllable. Don't return to the liberation before returning to power. People, only the Chinese people most hope that the RMB will be strong.

To tell the truth, Zhou Xiaochuan does not know the answer. Maybe he knows, but he will not say, and maybe Zhou Xiaochuan's answer is not correct, because no one can tell the truth of the market. The world has called Zhu Geliang, but even Kongming will not be able to guess. Why?

RMB is of course pnational. If the RMB is not officially pnational before the national day, then the National Day is truly pnational. This is what SDR means.

RMB is becoming international after "eleven".

The reserve currency of the organization is ranked after the US dollar and euro. Before the yen, the renminbi has become the currency that the countries in the organization can settle each other. What is pnational and what is it?

This is why the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable before the "eleven". After the "eleven", the renminbi has been stuck in the market for a long time. It has destroyed the 6.7 pass, and has hit 6.7858 of the middle price. It has set the lowest level of 6.7850 in September 2010, and the highest value in the offshore renminbi has reached 6.7987. In the offshore renminbi, it is the highest 6.7869. The record is used to break the sentence in the depreciation of the RMB, which is more appropriate, but the speed is still very uncomfortable.

The first round was in August 11, 2015, the central bank lowered the central parity point by 1000 points, the renminbi depreciated by 20%, set a historical record, the second round was December 11, 2015, the central bank launched a basket of currency indices, and the RMB rectify the revaluation of the renminbi, and in December 30th, the RMB ended 0.1% in the US, which was the lowest since May 2011. The third round began in June 24, 2016, and the United States broke off the euro, and the pound dropped to 10% against the US dollar. The US dollar index rose sharply, and the RMB plunged 6.6 yuan to 6.6172 yuan. In July 18th, the renminbi fell below the 6.7 mark, for the first time since the beginning of the SDR, and before the yuan became officially SDR, it was speculated that the central bank would intervene in the offshore market.

In order to maintain the stability of the renminbi.

However, we must point out that the depreciation of the renminbi we usually talk about is only against the US dollar, but it appreciates against the euro, the pound and the yen, and other non US currencies. Of course, Hong Kong dollars are excluded, because Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, that is to say, other currencies depreciate more sharply against the US dollar, in turn, it can be said that the appreciation of the dollar is too great.

It's not that we can't, it's the American devil. Why is the dollar so strong? Because the Fed's interest rate increase in December is expected to continue to rise, and the US dollar's return to the US is just around the corner. From the perspective of China's foreign exchange reserves, it has exceeded 500 billion US dollars from the peak to now. This will inevitably push the appreciation of the US dollar and form a virtuous circle conducive to the US dollar, which has nothing to do with the problem of the RMB itself, and is related to the short-term policy orientation of the Federal Reserve.

So, is there any internal pressure on the RMB to depreciate? China's official caliber has always been.

There is no foundation for sustained depreciation, but the water devaluation agrees with this judgment, but the intermittent depreciation may exist and is in progress. The reason is very simple. For many years, the RMB can be printed quite a lot. M2 is 13% per year, although it is all caused by foreign exchange, but after all, the liquidity is in flood. The price is not rising. But we can see that the price of houses has gone up to the sky. The real estate has served as a reservoir, which has solved the pressure of inflation. But can this reservoir last forever? Sooner or later, the water will overflow.