Euro To Us Dollar Trend "Moderate" Foreign Exchange Situation To Change

This year, the euro is very stable against the US dollar, and it seems to be forgotten. As the pound fell sharply and many emerging market currencies rose strongly, the euro has been fluctuating around us $1.12 for several months. However, as the end of the year approaches, this situation may change. The euro may not be the same as the US dollar. currency This year's trend is fierce.

But compared with the previous period, the exchange rate will be more active in the last quarter. This sign has been revealed in the past week, and the euro hit a low level of two and a half months below $1.10 before Thursday.

The September meeting of the Fed showed that the possibility of higher interest rates in the United States increased, and global policy differentiation or resurgence. The yield difference between the 2 - year treasury bonds and the 2 - year German bonds has widened to more than 1.5 percentage points. Similar to the euro, the yield differential has been narrowing around 1.3 percentage points for several months.

At the same time, the ECB may seek a slightly more precise statement next week on the debt purchase plan, but the ECB may not take action until December.

In addition, political risks may also be addressed. Euro The trend is driven. The US presidential election has entered the final stage. The prevailing view is that if Hilary wins, it may reduce the political risk premium of US dollar pricing, which may push up the US dollar. But if Trump is elected president, it will become a shocking event than Britain's referendum, and it will cause uncertainty and turbulence.

Morgan Stanley issued a report saying that the euro would be bullish. The investment bank believes that the market's concerns about the European banking sector are favorable to the euro, which may lead to the settlement of overseas assets by the European Union banks and will be made. Repatriation of funds 。 The ECB has recently been cautious about negative interest rates, suggesting that there are few policy tools left by the ECB. Inflation in the global and European Union also picked up in September. If the rally continues, it may reduce the market's expectation of further reduction of negative interest rates by the European Central Bank and support the euro.