RMB's Accession To SDR Is Not Necessarily Related To Exchange Rate.

From a macro perspective, the inclusion of RMB in SDR has broad positive significance.

It has a great boost to China's economic development, financial system reform and RMB internationalization.

Talking about the impact of RMB internationalization, Lian Ping believes there are two positive effects.

One is the demonstration effect. SDR is internationally recognized as a "super sovereign reserve currency". Joining the SDR means that the status of RMB as an international reserve currency has been recognized by IMF, and has officially become the official reserve currency for the 188 member countries. Two, it is a forced effect. China has adopted and will continue to adopt a series of measures conducive to the opening of the capital and financial accounts before and after the RMB's accession to the SDR, including the improvement of the RMB exchange rate intermediate price mechanism, which in turn will further promote the internationalization of RMB.

"In the medium to long term, the inclusion of the SDR basket will be beneficial to the renminbi, but it may not last for a long time, and it may also be delayed," said Dun Hua, a chartered financial analyst at Dahua Bank global economic and market research, told Xinhua that the reason for the delay is that the new currency basket may be postponed until October 1, 2016.

From the actual impact, ordinary people may be more concerned if the IMF vote is passed, will the RMB exchange rate once again "dive"?

In this regard, Cao Fengqi said frankly, "the RMB is not necessarily linked to the SDR and the exchange rate, which is actually enhancing the international discourse power of RMB, making RMB one of the world's common currencies, and may even break the monopoly of US dollar settlement in the future."

He also gave a negative answer. He believed that no matter from the domestic economic data, the development of financial markets, or the dynamics of debt or capital flows, there is no sign of massive depreciation or sustained depreciation.

"After China's accession to the SDR, China still needs to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate," he said.

Guo Tianyong, a professor at the school of finance at Central University of Finance and Economics, looks at the fact that the "basket" of the renminbi can even reduce the loss of wealth caused by the depreciation of official reserves and reduce the expectation of depreciation of the renminbi, thereby slowing down the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike.

For Chinese citizens holding renminbi, they can also benefit from the RMB "basket" SDR.

In the long run, Chinese consumers will realize their dream of directly traveling, shopping and investing in Renminbi.

People who have experienced outbound travel experience have a lot of feelings about "swap". Tourists not only need to convert the exchange rate before the departure date, but also make an appointment for bank exchange. After returning home, they need to convert the remaining foreign currency into RMB, which not only has exchange rate losses, but also has complicated operation steps, which adds to the travel cost.

"With the entry of RMB into the SDR, more and more countries have approved RMB, willing to accept renminbi, or carry out various pactions in Renminbi.

In this way, the consumption of overseas shopping and tourism will be more convenient. "

Lian Ping said that when people travel around the world in the future, they do not need to exchange foreign currencies.

In Cao Fengqi's view, China's current account has been fully opened, and the proportion of RMB payment in international trade has been increasing. Only the capital account has not been fully liberalized.

And studying abroad, personal overseas

And so on may benefit indirectly from the "basket" of RMB.

At the same time,

SDR is also of practical significance to foreign trade enterprises.

"Import and export commodities can be priced in Renminbi, reducing the exchange rate risk and exchange costs of enterprises, and improving the efficiency of import and export enterprises."

Guo Tianyong said.

Lagarde, President of IMF, issued a statement that the renminbi met the requirements of the "freely available" currency.

The United States, the largest shareholder of IMF and the decisive vote, has made it clear that once the renminbi meets the requirements of IMF, it plans to support RMB's accession to the SDR currency basket.

The industry generally believes that the RMB into the basket.

A few settled.

If there is no accident, the RMB will officially become the fifth currency after the US dollar, euro, pound and Japanese yen are added to the SDR currency basket.

Of course, whether the RMB can really be included in the basket of currencies of SDR needs to meet two "rigid" standards.

The first is the size of the export trade of currency issuing countries, and the two is the free use of money.

When IMF reviewed SDR in 2010, the renminbi met the first criterion, but it did not meet the second criteria.

In August this year, the initial evaluation report of SDR released by IMF showed that the scale of international use of RMB has increased significantly since the 2010 assessment of the SDR currency basket.

In a document submitted to the board of directors for a five year SDR review, IMF staff pointed out that the renminbi is in line with the requirement of "freely available" currency.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said that from the professional and technical point of view, the renminbi basically has the above conditions and qualifications, and can enter the SDR currency basket.

"RMB basket SDR is a natural course."

Cao Fengqi, director of the finance and securities research center of Peking University, admitted in an interview with China news network.

Since the "basket" is a foregone conclusion, then how to "weight" becomes the only suspense.

Preliminary estimates from IMF show that the weight of the renminbi may be between 14% and 16%, higher than the pound and yen.

Lian Ping predicts that the share of the renminbi will probably reach 15%, and that the share of the other four currencies will decline correspondingly as a result of the RMB's accession.

However, there are also many analyses that the final assessment of IMF will substantially reduce the proportion of trade parameters in the standard. The weight of the renminbi in SDR may be overestimated, and the ING Bank of Holland predicted that the amount would be only 9.2%.