Cotton Market: Shortage Of Funds In Downstream Industry Chain

The head of the Ministry of economic development and reform of the supply and Marketing Cooperative pointed out that the spot sale of cotton is very difficult. In the fourth quarter, the cotton market will face a grim situation, and a new problem of "selling cotton will be difficult".

It is estimated that cotton prices will fall before the first half of November, and the possibility of low innovation or even a million yuan will not be ruled out.

Cotton prices rebounded as cotton futures rebounded, and cotton futures prices rebounded as the late new cotton market decreased and bank support increased.

However, for the fourth quarter of cotton futures trend, Yang Zhijiang said, in recent months contract CF1601 because of the high cost of seed cotton purchase, registered warehouse receipts are not economic, so CF1601 lack of warehouse receipts, which will cause CF1601 down kinetic energy is insufficient, CF1601 price falls below 11500 yuan probability is not big, maintain 12000-12800 yuan interval probability.

"Cotton enterprise funding shortage is an important reason for the new cotton procurement.

Due to the lack of funds in the entire textile industry chain, orders for the downstream weaving factories are seriously insufficient, the price of pure cotton cloth has continued to decline, the inventory of finished goods in the weaving mill has increased, large scale funds have been occupied, the shortage of orders and the capital expenditure of finished products are serious, which affects the purchase and purchase of cotton yarn by weaving mills.

The stock of cotton yarn has increased and prices have dropped. "

Jiangsu Wuxi yarn factory factory director Yang told reporters in an interview.

At the same time, Mr. Yang pointed out that most of the yarn supplied to the weaving mill is not.

There is still a certain amount of accounts, but cotton mills generally purchase cash from cotton, and the pressure from the mills is even greater.

The whole industry chain is short of consumption and lacks confidence in the future price rise.

In addition, in recent years, the inner and outer cotton market has shown a strong external and weak pattern.

On the domestic side, despite the expected reduction in cotton production and import control in the new year, however, under the background of high inventory and weak downstream demand, cotton showed a downward trend.

In view of this, Lin Guofa, manager of the research department of agricultural product collection and purchase network, said that if the US cotton was indeed strong in the past month, the US cotton December contract rose from 59.7 cents / pound to the current 64.5 cents / pound.

However, if viewed from a large area, in 2015, the United States cotton was in the 59-68 cent / pound box movement.

Domestic cotton in the first half of 2015 was mainly in the 13000-13500 yuan / ton box movement, and in June it was dominated by weakness.

Listing, Zheng cotton prices again fell, has now fallen below the 12000 yuan / ton mark.

Generally speaking, outer cotton is stronger than Zheng cotton, especially since September.

At the same time, a large number of newly built cotton textile enterprises in Southeast Asia and South Asia have occupied the market demand of Chinese cotton and clothing, but are conducive to international cotton demand. With the domestic cotton inventory fundamentals, domestic cotton is still on the way to inventory.

The international cotton sector is still fluctuating near the cost line under the current demand for China's imports, waiting for the next year's output and demand guidance.

"The domestic cotton market is ahead of schedule due to seasonal fluctuations. It is estimated that cotton futures will show a trend of first fall and then rebound after the four quarter. From late October to early November, the market may appear to be" difficult to sell cotton ", and the spot prices of seed cotton and lint futures are all low.

Galaxy futures analyst Chen Xiaoyan said in an interview with reporters.

However, Yang Zhijiang said that far month contract CF1605 was dragged down by grade cotton, and the domestic textile enterprises will increase the purchase demand for the national storage Chen cotton because of the new year's cotton quality problem, which will lead to the national reserve throwing and storing ahead of schedule.

Under the influence of the above factors, the pressure of CF1605 is larger, the performance is weak, and it is unlikely to rise.

Therefore, the futures market will also appear in the recent months and the contract contract differentiation.