The Global Cotton Market Will Be Full Of Suspense In 2015/16.

international cotton The July global demand and demand forecast released by the Advisory Committee (ICAC) believes that 2015/16 will be full of suspense. At present, the cotton seeding in the northern hemisphere is coming to an end and the harvest in the southern hemisphere is about to be completed. In 2014/15, the area of cotton planting is 33 million 500 thousand hectares and the output is 26 million 200 thousand tons. The southern hemisphere has an area of 2 million 900 thousand hectares, accounting for 8% of the world's total output, accounting for 2 million 500 thousand tons, accounting for 10% of the world's total.

In 2015/16, the global cotton planting area is estimated to be 31 million 300 thousand hectares, a decrease of 6% over the same period last year. According to the average output per unit area of 764 kg / ha, the global output is expected to be 23 million 900 thousand tons, down 9% from the same period last year. China's cotton planting area is expected to be 3 million 800 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12% over the same period last year, and its output is expected to be 5 million 400 thousand tons, a decrease of 16% over the same period last year, mainly due to the low target price and high production cost. India Cotton planting area is expected to be 11 million 600 thousand hectares, a decrease of 5% compared with the same period last year. The decline in competitive crop prices and a small increase in minimum supporting prices have reduced the area. The annual monsoon in India is earlier than the previous year. The cotton yield per unit area is expected to increase by 3%, reaching 547 kg / ha, and the output is expected to be 6 million 400 thousand tons. U.S.A In terms of international cotton prices, cotton planting area decreased to 3 million 300 thousand acres, down 15% compared to the same period last year. El Nino futures brought heavy rain to parts of the United States, and cotton yield per unit area is expected to increase by 3% to 933 kg / ha, and cotton production is expected to be 3 million 100 thousand tons, down 12% from the same period last year. The cotton planting area in Pakistan is expected to be 2 million 700 thousand hectares, a decrease of 6% compared with the same period last year. The average cotton yield is expected to return to nearly four years, averaging 768 kg / ha, 5% lower than the historical high of 812 kg in the previous year, and the output of salt baked chicken is 2 million 100 thousand tons, a decrease of 11% over the same period.

In 2015/16, global cotton consumption is estimated at 24 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the same period last year. China's consumption is expected to be stable at 7 million 700 thousand tons, and its share in the world has dropped to 31%, declining for sixth consecutive years. India's consumption is estimated at 5 million 400 thousand tons, up 3% from the same period last year, accounting for 22% of global consumption. Pakistan consumption is expected to grow at 2 million 600 thousand tons, up 3% from the same period last year, accounting for 10% of the global consumption share and the third largest cotton consumer in the world.

As the main cotton consuming countries Imported Demand is strong, 2015/16 global cotton imports will increase 7 million 700 thousand tons in Australia, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. Imports from outside China are expected to grow by 4% to 6 million 100 thousand tons, thus partially reducing the decline in China's cotton imports. China's imports are expected to be 1 million 600 thousand tons, down 9% from the same period last year.

In 2014/15, ICAC estimated the value of the A A index was 71 cents, with a range of 70-73 cents. In 2015/16, international cotton prices will remain basically stable, depending on global inventories. The end of the year inventory in 2014/15 is estimated at 21 million 900 thousand tons, up 9% over the same period, and the inventory consumption ratio is 90%. From 2010/11 to date, global cotton inventories have increased by 13 million 400 thousand tons. In 2015/16, global inventories will drop to 20 million 900 thousand tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Stocks outside China are expected to be reduced by 3% to 9 million tons. However, the actual situation of inventory depends on how China deals with reserve cotton stocks. Recently, the Chinese government announced that the price would be close to the market price. Reserve cotton The actual spanaction needs to be observed.