Russian Market: Building A Diversified Market Structure In Search Of Danger

On the eve of new year's day, the Russian government declared the ruble crisis as early as possible, but it was too early to conclude. In the two days of 15 and 16 December 2014, the ruble once dropped 80 points against the US dollar, plunged more than 25%, and ruble fell another 9.3% in December 30, 2014. Expert analysis shows that the international oil bear market is hard to change in the short term, but Russia's dependence on oil and natural gas industry can not be changed for a while, and the adjustment of industrial structure will take some time. This situation determines that the Russian economy is likely to shrink this year, and the demand for Russian consumer market is expected to decrease.

"The ruble's depreciation will continue until what time is it hard to say?" Wen Bin, principal researcher of Minsheng Bank, told reporters. However, he pointed out that at present Russia has certain foreign exchange reserves and can take temporary capital controls and other measures, and Russia's political situation is relatively stable, with certain risk prevention and control capabilities.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, said: "the seriousness and persistence of this crisis require that enterprises have enough patience." Su Chaoying, chairman of the China Leather Association, also said: "the international political and economic structure is changing rapidly, but Russia is affected by various aspects such as politics, economy and so on. In the short term, the situation of low consumption is difficult to change. Therefore, it is suggested that enterprises should prepare for the coldness of the Russian market in the past one to two years. But on the other hand, after this round of shuffling, some big enterprises that have strong strength and can persist will occupy a more competitive position in the future. He pointed out that Russia's daily necessities consumption is highly dependent on the international market. In the long run, it still has a strong consumption power. Therefore, this market is worth sticking to.

In terms of corporate response, many experts have changed the currency of payment, using RMB and US dollar as settlement currency, or for short, medium and long term. exchange rate Locking, forward settlement, etc., but it is very difficult for enterprises to reflect the actual operation. Russian customers are unwilling to accept RMB or US dollar settlement. The digestion of enterprises' backlogs has also become a major problem, especially export. shoes Products, because the version and style are mainly adapted to the Russian market, it is difficult to sell domestic products or sell the European market. Enterprises can only turn the backlog of goods to the suppliers, and cause new problems.

Mei Yuxin suggested that Chinese businessmen in the Russian market could avoid risks through the FTA platform. Although Russia prohibits the direct use of foreign currencies in the domestic market, the Russian Chinese businessmen and their Russian trade partners may use the Shanghai free trade area to set up free trade accounts in China's free trade area. The account will be stored in Renminbi or US dollars, and transactions will take place in Russia. The payment calculation can be achieved through free trade accounts in the Shanghai free trade area, thus avoiding possible Russian control.

The era of "laying eggs in a basket and worrying about it is over". In the context of global economic integration, it is particularly important for enterprises to rearrange the distribution and pattern of international markets in order to avoid risks. The risks and losses that a single market brings to enterprises is often fatal. Even if there is no crisis of this ruble depreciation, there may be other crises. Therefore, it is suggested that enterprises should take an open view of the international market. Now there are many opportunities for Southeast Asian market, South America and Africa, and so on. Enterprises can take this opportunity to explore the construction of a diversified market structure. China Leather Association Director Su Chaoying suggested.