RMB Spot Down Unspeakable Depreciation Channel Opened

China's RMB against the US dollar fell on Thursday as the central bank lowered its central parity price.

Although the market is expected to open the Chinese quasi cycle, traders generally believe that the key to the spot exchange rate is to see the middle price traction. The overall performance of the domestic and foreign markets is relatively stable today.

At the close, the US dollar / Renminbi inquiry system closed at 6.2524, a decrease of 75 points compared with the previous trading day.

They also pointed out that the exchange rate policy is expected to be stable at the moment when the interest rate reduction tool is released.

Although the pressure of RMB depreciation has been reduced in a comprehensive way, if the central bank can control the floating rate of spot exchange rate through the middle price, if it does not touch down the limit, its intervention in the market will not be very likely to alleviate the RMB's downward trend.

Because the central bank intervention needs to throw the US dollar to buy the renminbi, this will certainly return the local currency liquidity, thus causes the monetary easing effect to be discounted.

According to the data released by Hongkong Finance Association, the fixed price of US dollar / Renminbi (Hongkong) spot exchange rate in February 5th was 6.2513/6.2543.

"We can push back from the drop in the standard." (the central bank) will not allow the market to form a significant devaluation. Otherwise, the pressure of liquidity supplement will increase and the independence of monetary policy will be affected.

Zhang Zhiqing, a senior trader at the China Merchants Bank's financial market, pointed out that the reduction is more to supplement the liquidity gap caused by the decrease in foreign exchange and capital outflow, rather than the large-scale drainage. Therefore, the drop in the spot rate is neutral, and the exchange rate will remain flexible.

The Central Bank of China announced on Wednesday that the deposit reserve ratio of the general financial institutions should be 0.5 percentage points, the first time in nearly three years that it has been fully standardized.

It is expected that this will release more than 6,00 0 billion yuan of funds and guide the reduction of market capital costs.

Downward pressure.

Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's financial market, also believes that the renminbi is unlikely to derogate under the background of China's high trade surplus.

Although overseas expectations for Renminbi are stronger than domestic ones, they can not be left short in the domestic market.

Offshore CNH price changes are more sensitive than onshore CNY, but the final pricing power is still in the domestic market with larger trading volume and limit.

However, Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that the depreciation rate of RMB should not be less than US dollar from the perspective of correcting the overestimation of effective exchange rate.

The amplitude.

The overvaluation of the RMB effective exchange rate is the root cause of China's "economic reality" and "high debt" of enterprises and governments. "The current round of crisis, the experience of the world's major economic recovery also shows: who will depreciate first and who will recover first?"

Traders said that the drop in the RMB exchange rate was caused by the drop in accuracy, but today's intermediate price and spot rate are relatively stable.

In the limit of 2%, in fact, the RMB has not continued to fall. At present, the central bank has not yet seen the necessity of intervention by the central bank.

"We are more cautious and less willing to touch the upper limit of the US dollar. Once the upper limit is reached, it is likely to cause massive intervention by the central bank. I do not think the central bank will take the initiative to intervene. If the pressure of devaluation is too great, the price of CNH will go too far.

At present, the whole is relatively balanced. "

One foreign trader said.

In the offshore market, the 1 year US dollar / RMB non deliverable forwards reported RMB 6.3845/6.3895 yuan.

In the global market, the euro rose slightly after German data was released on Thursday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) abruptly stopped accepting the Greek bonds as collateral in the financing operation on Wednesday, resulting in the euro's collapse.

The Hong Kong dollar / Renminbi inquiry system closed at 0.8064, down 9 points from the previous trading day, and the 100 yen / RMB inquiry system closed at 5.3280, an increase of 98 points compared with the previous day; the euro / RMB inquiry system closed at 7.10455, an increase of 158 points compared with the previous trading day; the pound / RMB inquiry system closed at 9.5014, an increase of 814 points compared with the previous day; the Australian dollar / Renminbi inquiry system closed at 4.8720 points, an increase of 10 points compared with the previous trading day; the New Zealand dollar / RMB inquiry system was closed to an increase of 0% compared with the previous trading day; the Poyuan / RMB inquiry system was closed, increasing by more than the previous trading day.