Cotton Purchasing Season Is Cold &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Next Year, Fear Of Rising Prices.

This has already entered the peak season for cotton purchase, but the acquisition

Cotton acquisition has entered the peak season, and cotton growers looking forward to the rise in cotton prices have come to the cold market.

Reporters from Shandong and other places learned that compared with the rush buying last year, the paction between cotton growers and acquisition processing enterprises was deadlocked this year, and seed cotton prices continued to decline. Some farmers even felt panic.

Analysts believe that, due to the weak cotton production base and the substantial increase in production costs, price fluctuations have caused the whole industrial chain to encounter difficulties, and the impact on cotton growers has been the biggest. This has seriously affected the enthusiasm of cotton growers, and the planting area of some cotton producing areas has continued to decline. Next year, a surge of cotton prices will probably happen again.

Fall

Cotton acquisition cold season

"October and November are the peak season for cotton purchase in all parts of the country. The cotton area should be a busy scene, but this year is very cold."

Du min, an expert on cotton issues at the rural economic research center of the Ministry of agriculture, told reporters that in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places, the paction between cotton growers and acquisition processing enterprises was deadlocked.

Shandong Dezhou is one of the key cotton planting areas in the country. The cotton planting area is 1 million 600 thousand mu this year.

At present, the cotton seed picking has reached more than 95% in the whole city. Due to the low cotton price, the cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, and the sales progress is less than 10%.

Compared with last year, cotton prices fell sharply this year, coupled with the temporary storage and support of the state, which aggravated the cotton farmers' reluctance to sell.

The latest report on the implementation of the rural policy of the Ministry of agriculture's Rural Economic Research Center said that cotton prices surged rapidly and fell sharply this year, from the historical high price of 30733 yuan / ton in March to a sharp decline to 19329 yuan / ton in August.

In the late stage, with the introduction of the detailed rules for the state's temporary purchase and storage, cotton prices remained stable.

Since the start of the national temporary purchase and storage in September 8th, the policy effect has gradually weakened.

according to

According to the analysis of China cotton information network, with the new cotton market going to the peak stage recently, the price of seed cotton has gone down to a certain extent, which makes the cotton farmers who have worked hard for half a year get into a panic.

Last year's high price quotations naturally disappeared, but the state's purchasing and storage base price has not been implemented in some places at present. Cotton farmers in some areas reflect the price of seed cotton has dropped to below 4 yuan / Jin.

Tang Jingyu, manager of Shandong Changshui cotton textile products Co., Ltd., Liaocheng, said that the price of cottonseed has been dropping continuously, and the Liaocheng area has dropped to about 1 yuan / Jin, so that the purchase price of seed cotton has also declined. The better cotton is only about 4 yuan, and the price of the four lint price is only about 17600 yuan.

At present, the price of 32 ordinary yarns is only about 27 thousand yuan, although it has not declined significantly, but it has always been in a weak position, and the market turnover is very poor. Many of the cotton mill stocks in Liaocheng began to increase.

Huang Hongyu, deputy general manager of Henan TongZhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., told reporters that the purchase price of cotton in the new year is going up and down because the textile and cotton market is depressed. Even if there is a national reserve price protection, the cotton in the early stage will also lose money, so the purchase will be reduced.

In addition, the quality of cotton also affects the progress of acquisition.

Taking Dezhou as an example, the local grade three cotton accounts for about 40% or four grade cotton in normal year. The proportion of grade three cotton is less than that of normal year, while the proportion of grade five cotton is significantly higher than that of normal year.

{page_break}

Influence

Cotton growers suffer the most

Last year, soaring cotton prices had encouraged the cotton and textile industries, and the whole industry chain has achieved good returns.

The current downturn in cotton prices, let textile enterprises, cotton enterprises, cotton farmers are in trouble.

As a product of industrial raw materials, the industrial chain of cotton is very long.

In the downstream of the cotton industry chain, the days of textile enterprises are suffering from the impact of the global economic downturn.

The latest survey by the China Cotton Association shows that the international market is in a sluggish fashion, and textile prices have dropped earlier than before, and the finished goods inventory of cotton textile enterprises has continued to increase.

In order to get the funds back quickly and maintain the normal operation of the working capital, most enterprises sell their products.

China's foreign trade "wind vane" canton fair paction data show that, because the world economy has not yet come out of the shadow of the financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis continues to deteriorate, and the operating costs of enterprises continue to rise, and other reasons, textile and garment enterprises generally reflect that the confidence in receiving orders is not strong.

Ma Junkai, cotton association of Dezhou City, Shandong Province, told reporters that the spot price of cotton continued to decline since mid September, which had a certain impact on the downstream market, and the purchasing intention of weaving and clothing customers was not strong, resulting in the sale of cotton yarn blocked, and the yarn price continued to decline.

At present, the mainstream price of C32S cotton yarn in Dezhou is about 27200 yuan / ton, 700 yuan / ton less than half a month ago, and the sales of cotton yarn are slow, the average operating rate is only about 70%.

Cotton companies are also having a bad time.

China cotton information network's latest weekly report said that although there are reserve provisions, the old phenomenon still exists. On the one hand, the acquisition and processing costs of cotton enterprises have been tested, and many enterprises are playing a game between them. On the other hand, the seed cotton grades in some areas are not high, and it is difficult for enterprises to pay for storage after processing.

For cotton growers, analysts point out that cotton farmers' bargaining power is the weakest and the impact is even more pronounced in the entire industrial chain from international market consumption to domestic cotton production.

It is understood that the commodity rate of cotton reaches more than 98%, accounting for more than 17% of cotton farmers' income in cotton area, and cotton income in Xinjiang cotton area accounts for 37% of household income.

After the price rise and fall, cotton farmers had hoped for a good price for cotton in the new year.

Mu Yingchang, a villager in Lu Wa village, Botou Town, Zhanhua County, Binzhou, Shandong, said that according to the price of 4.1 yuan per catty, only 1435 yuan per mu of cotton could be sold. If people were asked to pick them again, they would have to pay 315 yuan for their land, so they had not made enough money.

Facing the current situation of not optimistic management, textile enterprises alleviate the dilemma by replacing cotton with chemical fiber, reducing cotton ratio and importing cotton.

It is understood that imported cotton is more than ever before, and cotton, Mexico cotton and India cotton are at hand, and the price is better than domestic cotton.

The Textile Industry Association recently advised the State Council to cancel the slippery tax since the textile enterprises wanted to import cheap cotton, according to the industry.

The people believe that since the implementation of the sliding tax in 2005, it has played a positive role in the development of the cotton industry and in protecting the interests of farmers.

If the slip tax is abolished, the subsidized cotton in the United States and the low-cost cotton in India will have a great impact on China's cotton market.

{page_break}

Secret worry

Next year or raise price surges.

Reporter survey found that this year's cotton prices seriously affected cotton growers planting enthusiasm, part of cotton production area continued to decline.

The industry is worried that the supply of cotton market will continue to decrease next year, which may lead to a boom in cotton prices.

Huang Hongyu believes that even if the price cotton growers are willing to grow, textile enterprises will not be able to bear under the current market conditions. The main problem is that demand is a problem. In addition, the labor cost of agricultural production and textile production in China is high. Compared with other countries such as India, Pakistan and some other Southeast Asian countries, it has no comparative advantage.

Rapidly rising materialization and labor costs have become a burden on cotton farmers' shoulders.

Some farmers have counted the accounts for journalists. This year, the yield of cotton per mu is about 100 Jin less than that of last year, and only 350 Jin can be harvested at most.

The cost of fertilizer, pesticide and seeds in an acre area needs 500 yuan, and the land contract cost per mu is 500 yuan.

In Binzhou, Shandong and Dongying, the cost of picking cotton has risen from 0.6 yuan per catty to 0.9 yuan to 1.3 yuan last year. The cost of picking labor in Dezhou has risen from 35 yuan to 60 yuan a day.

Picking only one labor cost makes cotton farmers yield less than 300 yuan per mu, and many cotton farmers are reluctant to hire workers because of their slow picking.

Tang Menghua, a village in Wudi, Shandong, has 15 acres of land for planting cotton, but because of the huge rise and fall of cotton prices in recent years, he has contracted 12 mu of land to others to plant corn and other crops.

"Next year, the remaining 3 acres of land will not necessarily grow cotton, which is too low and risky, and it will cost 800 yuan for the land to be contracted to another mu of land, though not much, but there is no risk."

Ma Junkai introduced that cotton planting area in Dezhou has declined sharply in recent years, from 2 million 900 thousand acres in 2008 to 1 million 600 thousand acres this year.

At present, more than 20% of cotton fields in Dezhou have been plugged with cotton and converted to wheat. It is estimated that the cotton planting area will be reduced to about 1 million 400 thousand mu in 2012.

The current cotton production is worried by Du min, who has been engaged in Cotton Research for a long time. She believes that the importance of supporting the industry's production base and industry is highly incommensurate.

According to her research, the scale of farmers supporting the industrial development is very small, and the average cotton planting area is only about 4 mu.

The labor force in the cotton area is mainly the elderly and women. The average age of the cotton growing workers is over 48 years old, which determines their low educational level and backward means of obtaining information sources. Every price fluctuation is a great calamity for cotton farmers.

Du min suggested that the way out for cotton in the future is to strengthen domestic support policies such as technology input and high-yield creation, and promote cotton farmers cooperation.