The Choice Of Macro-Control Year: Inflation Prevention Is Still The Top Priority.

Banks began to "give ious" to the power plant.

Recently, a state-owned power plant in a central province encountered such a situation. In the past, the appliance factory could get it from the bank every month. loan It is used to finance the flow of fuel, but now the bank accepts the bill of exchange to the household appliance factory, which will be converted into cash after a period of time, and the longest period can be dragged on for 6 months.

This is " Tighten Monetary policy ". The "acceptance bill" has become the "capital" of the power plant to pay for the coal accounts of the upstream enterprises, and the accounts like the "ious" have begun to circulate in the economic entities. But no one can get the real money from the bank until the time stipulated in the draft. Unless urgent cash companies are willing to pay more interest to those rich individuals.

On July 15th at two o'clock in the morning, vegetable dealer Xiao Chen drove a van in the rain and went to Beijing's largest vegetable and fruit distributing center to purchase new products. A few hours later, he picked up the goods at the booth at the gate of a small village in Chaoyang District, and he said to himself, "four pieces of egg and eighty one jin, who has eaten such an expensive egg? Chinese cabbage two yuan, more than one kilo, five meat up to sixteen! "

This is "inflation", which is being transformed from hard CPI data into real prices, and then into people's daily living cities, regardless of whether your wages are rising or falling.

Wang Zhihao, head of research in Greater China in Standard Chartered Bank, recently noticed a special phenomenon. Construction machinery enterprises like Sany began to decline sharply in recent months. He said that this may be due to a sharp reduction in the number of investment projects to be launched in the future, which means that the growth rate of China's economy, which is mainly driven by investment, is slowing down.

Deflation, inflation and slower growth are the time for policymakers to make a decision. According to our understanding from the ministries and commissions, the three option is to prevent inflation in the second half of the year.

In July 15th, people concerned with the national development and Reform Commission said, "the current multiple-choice question is" maintaining growth "and" preventing inflation ", but under the current circumstances, the impact and harm of high inflation on the whole society is greater, so this is still the main task.

People from the central bank also believe that the obvious problem is inflation. "In a very insistent situation, it is possible to solve the inflation problem, first solve it, and then relax the policy after solving it."

It is understood that by the beginning of August, the central government will hold a meeting to set a clear tone for the economic work in the second half of the year and deploy relevant regulatory policies.

At present, the relevant bureaus of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the central bank, the Ministry of Commerce and the Banking Regulatory Commission have been conducting research in various places. They will hold the annual economic analysis meeting in the near future, and some analysis reports and policy proposals will be submitted to the State Council. Their findings and the judgment of the macro trend will control the policy of the second half of the year.

Intensive investigation by ministries and commissions

Since the beginning of June, the national development and Reform Commission and the central bank have begun to investigate the problems in economic operation. On June 14th -16, the national development and Reform Commission sent a research team to Jiangxi to investigate rice production and rice market prices.

On June 9th -17, the Economic Development Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission held an annual economic analysis and seminar on steel, building materials, machinery and other industries. In from June 19th to 20th, the Economic Development Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission held a forum on economic performance analysis in the first half of the year in Xi'an. The relevant departments of 16 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government attended the meeting. The meeting discussed new situations and new problems that occurred in the first half of the year, and put forward relevant suggestions for macro-control and operation adjustment in the second half of the year.

Recently, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission has gone to the local government to investigate the harvest situation, price and cost fluctuation of summer grain and autumn grain. In July 17th, a number of research and development teams of the NDRC went to Anhui and Jiangsu to investigate the price problems and the problems in economic operation.

The national development and Reform Commission said that if the first half of the year is not focused on inflation prevention, the CPI data will only be higher. At the same time, "although economic growth is slowing down, it is also affected by the active adjustment of policies, and there is no need for special concern for economic growth in the second half of the year."

However, even if all policy objectives point to the first half of "anti inflation", the trend of CPI is still worrying. Statistics show that CPI rose 5.4% in the first half of the year, and showed a trend of rising month by month. In the month of June, the growth rate of 6.4% exceeded the expectation of most market organizations.

The CBRC recently launched an investigation into the whole country. People close to the CBRC said regulators should investigate real estate, Internet lending, microfinance companies, financing Guarantee corporation risk warnings, small business financing difficulties, Jiangsu and Zhejiang capital chain research and so on.

People from the central bank said that all departments of the central bank have conducted research in their respective areas of responsibility, and monetary policy decisions have been jointly conducted by relevant ministries and commissions. The central bank's research contents involve the total amount of social financing, local financing platform, private lending and personal financial data protection.

The central bank said the survey results show that shadow banking and private lending are very active, indicating that the driving force for economic development is still great.

The central bank is optimistic about the current economic situation, and his worries are at risk. He said, "optimism lies in the power of the private sector. Despite the difficulties of financing, the question of whether borrowing can be borrowed or not is very large, which means that the private sector is confident enough. The risk is that which industries are allocated to the industry in a safe way, which can get profits and cover the cost of financing. This is something to worry about. "

Another worry of the central bankers is the problem of economic restructuring, which may be more serious in the relevant departments of the national development and Reform Commission. The findings of the NDRC's Economic Operation Bureau found that the backward industry and industrial upgrading of overcapacity industries are still progressed slowly.

The investigation of relevant departments of the national development and Reform Commission also found a more serious problem in the first half of the year. The situation of energy saving and emission reduction has worsened. Relevant departments said that in the first half of the year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 12.2%, and the electricity consumption in June increased by 13%; in the first half of the year, the GDP of the whole country increased by 9.6%. "This shows that our energy consumption is not going down. The goal set by the State Council at the beginning of the year is about 3.5% reduction in the whole year. What should we do in the second half? "

In addition, the national development and Reform Commission's research bureau also found that in the first half of the year, some key areas of reform also made slow progress. For example, the issue of income distribution, according to the goal set by the State Council at the beginning of the year, is the "two simultaneous" goals of "the simultaneous growth of household income and economic development, the increase of labor remuneration and the improvement of labor productivity".

According to the statistics released by the Bureau of statistics in July 14th, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in the first half of the year increased by 7.6% in real terms, while the growth rate of GDP reached 9.6%. People in the Bureau said, "the growth rate of GDP in local provinces is basically over 10%, and the central and local fiscal revenue has also increased rapidly, but the growth of residents' income is far behind." According to this person, some problems raised by the State Council at the beginning of the year are faced with great pressure in the second half of the year, such as income distribution, price reform of resource products and so on.

Anti inflation is still the top priority.

In July 13th, Sheng Lai Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, told the media that foreign liquidity is still very abundant, and that domestic costs are facing long-term upward pressure, and price regulation is also facing great pressure. Although Sheng Yun subsequently added that the favorable conditions for price stability are increasing. But he also acknowledged that there is still a long way to go before turning these advantages into reality. We must continue to stabilize prices in the first place of macroeconomic regulation and control.

At present, inflation remains the top priority, which is the consensus of the national development and Reform Commission and the central bank. In the national development and Reform Commission's view, inflation is still the most important policy concern in the future. This is not only because the State Council at the beginning of this year's work conference will focus on inflation prevention for the whole year, but also because the current factors of price rise have not yet been eliminated, and the various uncertainties that cause price increases still exist.

People from the national development and Reform Commission believe that the price rise in the first half of this year has many factors. At present, the tail factor will affect when it is difficult to judge, and the price of domestic consumer goods is hard to predict and control. In addition, with the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke suggesting that the United States may continue to adopt quantitative easing monetary policy, China will face more input costs in the second half of this year.

People from the central bank said that CPI is not yet aware of the summit. Only in a very persistent situation can we hope to solve the inflation problem. First we can solve it, and then we can relax the policy and then go to inflation.

The Treasury's attitude towards inflation has made it hesitate in resource tax reform. At the recent National Finance Bureau forum, officials from the Ministry of Finance said that fiscal policy was to tighten up, but was afraid of pushing up CPI. The introduction of resource tax reform is in such a contradiction. Local appeals are quite strong, but the tax increase policy, especially the taxation of energy sources, will have a more obvious impact on CPI.

Officials from the Ministry of commerce also believe that the pressure of inflation is still greater. The official said, "the CPI in 7 and August will go up again, and the pressure will still be great. So we feel that in the three quarter of the policy tightening policy should not change, the fourth quarter may also be to stop this pace, there will be no reversal.

In the first half of the year, tightening policy will not only lead to the lack of money in the market, but also further affect the overall growth of the economy. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in July 13th, the growth rate of GDP has changed from 9.7% in the three quarter of last year to 9.8% in the first quarter of 9.6% and 9.8% in the first quarter of this year, and then reduced to 9.5% in the two quarter. From the data point of view, the slowdown in GDP growth has become a reality.

But the NDRC seems not to worry about this. According to the figures, from June and the first half of the year, although the overall economic growth rate has slowed down, the ring data is still good, and has exceeded the original expectations of the market. At present, the "electricity shortage" and "labor shortage" in the society still indicate that the real economy is more active. "The economic slowdown is related to the strong economic stimulus exit and the structural transformation of the economy, and the economic growth rate is slightly lower."

The above said, "no regulatory policy can achieve all the goals. When you emphasize this goal, the other goal will be difficult to achieve satisfactory results."

In fact, on July 13th, when the National Bureau of statistics issued the data, the State Council held a executive meeting, and Premier Wen Jiabao said that we still need to control prices in the primary position of macroeconomic regulation. At the same time, we also referred to the "forward-looking" policy for the first time, and proposed to avoid fluctuations in economic growth. This makes the market think that the regulation of inflation in the second half of the year will still be the primary task.

According to Nomura Securities research, various data indicate that the economy will only slightly slow down in a high inflation environment, and the policy will further tighten in the second half of the year.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that tight monetary policy will not waver in the short term. "High inflation is still the main contradiction in the current economic operation, and the possibility of a sharp drop in growth is unlikely. We expect that monetary policy will not show signs of relaxation in the second half of the year."

Dispute control policy

Although ministries and commissions believe that the primary task of inflation prevention in the second half of this year can not be relaxed, some economists have begun to reflect on the damage brought to China's economy by taking too much emphasis on inflation and adopting tight policies.

On July 9th, at a seminar convened by Li Daokui, member of the central bank's monetary Committee, economists such as Ba Shu song, Chen Dongqi, Wang Jian, Chen Xingdong and others all believed that the Chinese economy has begun to slow down, and that the slowdown is due to the overshoot of macroeconomic policy.

Chen Xingdong, chief economist of Paris securities in France, said that the main reason leading to the rapid downturn of China's economy is policy. He said, "the current monetary policy is not normalized, and monetary policy is facing many pressures when correcting errors and correcting errors." Chen Xingdong believes that macro policies should be selectively relaxed.

Wang Jian, Secretary General of China macroeconomics research association, said China's investment demand is decreasing. The total planned investment for new investment projects representing the future investment increased by 6.4% in the first five months. In addition to the current PPI factors, the investment in new projects has been negative. He even predicted that China's economy will decline for three consecutive years starting this year.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at Tsinghua University's China and world economic research center, said the goal of the government's macroeconomic regulation should have been to reduce CPI and maintain economic growth. But now the situation is that CPI has not come down, but the economic growth has come down, which makes Yuan Gangming think that the macro policy is wrong. The government's failure to regulate the CPI is getting higher and higher, and the current situation is worse than 08 years.

But obviously, the government departments are not worried about the slowdown in economic growth. People from the national development and Reform Commission said that neither the growth rate of investment nor the slowdown in macroeconomic growth is not a big problem. From the survey, the impulse of local investment is still very strong, and the follow-up investment need not worry.

Also optimistic about the Ministry of Commerce, officials said, "overshoot" should not exist, and foreign exchange is still so large, the surplus is also very large in the past two months. This is the contradiction between controlling inflation and corporate finance. It is a matter of propriety.

The commerce ministry officials said that China's economy is entering a slowing down channel. From the point of view of the existing orders of enterprises, even if the growth rate of exports is down, it will still be able to maintain this year's scale. As long as there is no big reverse in the second half of the year, the European debt crisis, the United States and North Africa, and so on, as long as there is no big problem, this year's foreign trade should be OK.

Unlike the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of finance is worried about the negative impact of slowing economic growth on fiscal revenue. Xie Xuren, Minister of finance, said at a forum held recently at the National Finance Bureau, that raising the standard of income tax deduction for individual income tax and continuing to implement preferential income tax policies for some small and small enterprises will reduce some incomes, and the annual fiscal revenue growth will show a trend of high and low.

At this meeting, some local financial officials also analyzed the serious tax situation in the second half of the year. Tax cuts caused by the revision of personal income tax are not the main reasons, and the worry is that the growth of corporate tax revenue is declining. The main concern is that the overall macro-economic downturn has led to the decline in economic growth while corporate profits have been affected.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, said that in the second half of the year, efforts to prevent inflation will attach importance to increasing supply side policies. This includes implementing affordable housing construction, ensuring adequate supply of agricultural and sideline products, and increasing supply of pork through subsidies. In terms of aggregate demand, if the policy is fine-tuning, fiscal policy is expected to be the precursor and the approval of investment projects may be accelerated.