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Galaxy Futures: PTA Futures Price Stabilized With Crude Oil This Week

2010/7/10 15:41:00 28

Crude oil aromatics: WTI crude oil rebounded from the US $71 Jedi to US $75 this week, but it is still in the range of 70-80 US dollars.

PTA upstream petrochemical products: naphtha, MX prices steadily rose slightly this week, PX Asia's first half week after a sharp drop, until the second half of the week to stop and maintain at 830 U.S. dollars.

Once again, the crude oil is strong and has a certain support for the PTA price. But the PX price is weak. From the cost point of view, it is biased against PTA futures.

PTA spot

This week, the price of the PTA spot market basically follows the trend of futures. The mainstream price of the internal market has also edged up with the futures price. The spot trading price has risen from below 7000 yuan to 7150 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the seller at low price is more reluctant to sell. The spot market mentality is better, and the buyer's delivery is near 7050.

This week, the price of PTA's external market also rose from near 844 to 860, and at the end of the week, the negotiating price of Taiwan products was $855-860.

The situation of polyester factories: since June, the market has been panic buying after factors of power failure and limited production. The current polyester stock has dropped to a low level in the year. Although the stock level of polyester factories has begun to increase after entering July, the overall stock level of the mainstream polyester factories is only about 5-7 days, and the overall level is still at a low level in the whole year.

Since late June, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces

Polyester products

The cumulative focus of the paction rose more than 1000 yuan / ton, of which half light POY, FDY150D rose from 10200-10400, 11400-11600 yuan / ton to 11300, 12500 yuan / ton, half light section price rose to 9400-9500 yuan / ton, for the high polyester price, the market merchants began to behave cautiously.

Since last week, the futures and stock market fell sharply last week.

Spinning enterprises

State of mind began to change, polyester market volume began to significantly decline, the polyester market has seen a shrinking decline in recent signs, local preferential promotion has begun to appear, but the next half of the week, the futures market stabilizes and the stock market rebounded, the market for individual factory inventory of polyester varieties still have a small increase in price.

On the whole, we think: before mid July, the price of polyester products still showed a stalemate, showing a high overall consolidation situation, but the probability of weakening later stage was larger.

Terminal demand: at present, the rigid demand of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has entered the July, and the off-season factor has begun to appear. The price of silk has been greatly increased. At present, too high raw material prices have restricted the profit margins of textile factories. When the early stage orders are coming to an end, some circular machinery enterprises in Shaoxing choose to stop or reduce the start-up load, and the appreciation of RMB has begun to have a negative impact on export orders. In addition, the restricted electricity factors of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will also reduce the load of starting works, and the opening rate of circular machines in Shaoxing area has dropped to 50%.

Based on the above factors, we believe that the demand for chemical fiber raw materials will be significantly decreased in the end of July.